Monday, 27 October 2014

Are Econometric and Finance the Root Cause of Economic Problems?

by Rajeev Upadhyay

With every passing day the differences between the econometrics and finance is becoming less evident and it is not only in forms of the convergence of the both but also in forms of the nature, usability and importance that these two branches of study of getting these days. If we look holistically; econometrics and finance are auxiliary activities and tools in the hands of the decision makers respectively in the field of economics and management and are supposed to provide support to the real economy in true senses.

Tuesday, 14 October 2014

Inflation Declines in India

by Rajeev Upadhyay
India since long has been facing tough times on the front of inflation but after the change of guard in New Delhi, inflation in Indian economy is on fall. The retail inflation was at 7.73 per cent in August and in Sept it had been declined to 6.46 per cent and vegetable inflation to 8.59 per cent. The overall food inflation that is measured by CPI had declined to 7.67 per cent in comparison to 9.35 per cent in the previous month and 11.75 per cent in September 2013.

Tuesday, 30 September 2014

Implications of Status-Quo in Monetary Policy by RBI

by Rajeev Upadhyay

India’s central banker Reserve Bank of India today announced its monetary policy and it has decided to keep all the rates vis-à-vis repo rate, reverse repo rate, Cash Reserve Ratio and Statuary Liquidity Ratio unchanged. This move by the RBI has clear indication that RBI does not see lower inflation in near future but at the same time there is no threat on inflationary front. In last few months inflation in the economy has eased to some extent and analysts were expecting lower rates but Reserve Bank of India has decided to play safe than regret later.

Sunday, 28 September 2014

Is Upgrade by S&P Relevant for India?

by Rajeev Upadhyay

This week positive news came from global rating agency S&P. S&P has upgraded India's rating from negative to stable position. This means India is slightly in better position than earlier. This was done perhaps on account of higher GDP growth during last quarter and higher expected GDP growthrate that India is expected to post this fiscal year. S&P has also cited that it has higher faith in current regime in India as government would take decisions on time.

Monday, 25 August 2014

Has India done it Right by not Ratifying WTO’s TFA?

By Rajeev Upadhyay

There has been a lot of discussion about the India’s stand regarding the WTO's Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA) for which developed countries have been lobbying since long. India has made it clear that it will not ratify the TFA until and unless there is a concrete proposal to find out a permanent solution to its public food stock-holding issue for food security reason for ensuring access to enough food to her 1.3 billion population. Before opening the discussion we must look at the previous events.

Monday, 7 July 2014

Budget 2014-2015: Free Trade Agreements


by Rajeev Upadhyay

Free Trade Agreements
Government of India has entered into free trade agreements with many countries but most of the FTAs are not in favor country and those needs to be reviewed. From the trend line of the below graph for the period of 2008 to 2013, it is clear that country’s balance of trade situation has worsen in these years. This indicates that we have imported more from the other countries and exported less and this gap is widening although free trade agreements have been entered into with aims of plugging this gap. And this increasing gap is not good for the exchange rate for Indian rupee at all.

Sunday, 6 July 2014

Budget 2014-2015: Infrastructure, Taxes and Subsidies and Social Security Programs

Infrastructure
Government needs to improve the overall infrastructures in the country from roads to training lines to ports. Also there are numerous infrastructure projects from sectors like power generation, roads and industrial zones etc that are pending at different stages because of leniency on the part of government. Also government needs to formulate a better policy that incentivizes timely execution of infrastructure projects. For this there should be efficient land acquisition and rehabilitation policy in place.

Saturday, 5 July 2014

Budget 2014-2015: Investment, Manufacturing and Agriculture

Investment by Corporate
According to the latest data available, it is clear that the investment by corporate has been falling since long and this needs to be taken care of, as without and very low of investment by corporate, government would not be able to increase growth. So the government must ensure that there are some stimuli for the corporate to encourage them to reinvest their earnings back into the economy.

Friday, 4 July 2014

Budget 2014-2015: Employment and Skill Building

Employment
At present the unemployment situation in the country is alarming, with 4.7 crore youth (between 25 and 34 years of age) unemployed. Further it is notable that there are more than 350 millions of young people who are ready to enter the job market in next few years. If not managed the so called demographic dividend may turn out to be curse for the economy. And there is only way to decrease unemployment rate and increase opportunities for jobs for young people.

Thursday, 3 July 2014

Budget 2014-2015: Growth

Growth
Growth is another aspect of Indian economy that needs to be taken care of by the Indian government. In the last two five year plans, the average GDP growth rate in Indian economy was around 8%; however, the same is revolving around 4.5% now, which is hardly sufficient in view of the challenges faced by Indian economy. We need to accelerate growth back into the bracket of 8-10% to gain from the demographic profile of India. For this it needs to bring a lot of changes in overall economy.